US forecast: Hot, dry weather to linger into fall

Thursday, July 19, 2012 | 2:56 p.m. CDT; updated 4:11 p.m. CDT, Thursday, July 19, 2012

WASHINGTON — The unusually hot, dry weather that has gripped the nation will not let up its stranglehold over the next few months, federal weather forecasters said Thursday.

And that means the heartland's "flash drought" will linger at least until around Halloween and even spread a bit farther north and east.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's outlook for August through October shows that nearly every state will likely have hotter than normal temperatures. Much of the Midwest is likely to be drier than normal, too.

"It certainly is grim news for us in Illinois and other parts of the Midwest," said Illinois state climatologist Jim Angel. "I kind of have given up hope for short-term relief."

New figures released Thursday show that the percentage of the country now suffering from drought edged up from nearly 51 percent last week to more than 53 percent this week; the chunk of the country experiencing severe drought or worse rose in one week from 31 percent to 35 percent. Experts call it a flash drought because it developed in a matter of months, not multiple seasons.

"It's really unpleasant," said drought specialist Kelly Helm Smith at the National Drought Mitigation Center in Nebraska. She said relief "is not on the radar that I'm aware of."

For the Midwest, forecasters don't see any improvement until at least after October. In fact, if the weather phenomenon El Nino forms as predicted, it will mean even more dry weather next winter for the Midwest and North, said seasonal forecaster Dan Collins of the administration's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.

The forecast for just the month of August indicates a high probability for little rain for all or parts of 15 states that are the epicenter of the drought. That region encompasses Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa and the states  surrounding them

All told, 42 states or parts of them have been hit by the drought. An atmospheric adiminstration map shows it stretches from California east to Ohio and from Texas north to Minnesota. Tiny pockets of drought also dot the East, including much of Georgia and South Carolina.

The forecast for the next three months would push the drought farther north into Minnesota, North Dakota and Michigan and farther east into Pennsylvania, New York and West Virginia. But in the Southwest, especially Arizona and New Mexico, and to a lesser degree Colorado and Utah, the drought will ease a bit. And the eastern drought pockets are also likely to improve a bit.

The administration is also forecasting more triple-digit hot weather for several days starting Saturday for much of the Midwest from Kansas and Nebraska to Indiana and Michigan, with temperatures about 12 degrees hotter than normal. And that will make the drought even worse, forecasters say.

One of the main problems is the heat and lack of moisture are in a feedback loop. The ground is so dry that there's not enough moisture in the soil to evaporate into the atmosphere to cause rainfall. And that means hotter, drier air.

Illinois' Angel said the best chance for significant rain is going to come from the remnants of tropical storms or hurricanes that push into the Midwest, something that doesn't happen often.

"That's how desperate we are," Angel said.

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Michael Williams July 19, 2012 | 4:16 p.m.

There are reasons the US experienced the hot/dry conditions of the 1930's dustbowl. I don't know those reasons, but I'm sure hoping we aren't entering another decade of the same. I also have no idea where I read it (and don't know the authority, either), but I did read that such conditions have a cycle of 70-90 years. It's now been ca. 80.

I sure hope not.

PS: This morning's rain was the first coherent line of semi-thunderstorms typical of this area that I've seen in quite a while. It did tend more east/west than NE/SW, but at least it was coherent.

If you want to see the dome hovering over us, try messing around within this link:

(Report Comment)
Ellis Smith July 19, 2012 | 4:50 p.m.

Drought was only one cause of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. Agricultural practices were also a factor. Today the use of "minimum tillage" for row crops reduces opportunity that the wind will pick up topsoil and carry it away. Improvements have also been made in planting fields to minimize soil loss due to water erosion.

However, there's no guarantee that some semblance of a dust bowl might return if drought conditions persist beyond a year or two.

If you're a fan of global warming, consider that in 1936 (one of the worst years in history until now) the output of carbon dioxide from man-made combustion activities was considerably smaller, in the United States and wold wide, than today. Am I poo-pooing global warming? No, but I am pointing out that the earth's atmosphere is a complex system, and complex systems are apt to exhibit complex effects.

(Report Comment)
Michael Williams July 19, 2012 | 4:54 p.m.

Ellis: The "dust" was caused by agricultural practices.

The heat/drought/wind were not, so far as I know.

Wonder if the grasshoppers (locusts) will come back, too? Or did they get eradicated? I know I've never seen one.

(Report Comment)
frank christian July 19, 2012 | 6:03 p.m.

MW - Ask Ellis how the sea gulls knew all those grasshoppers were there.

(Report Comment)
Michael Williams July 19, 2012 | 6:09 p.m.

Frank: You might be referring to the mole cricket instead of grasshoppers.

(Report Comment)
frank christian July 19, 2012 | 8:42 p.m.

Yeah, I was off base again. My reference was to Mormons, 1848 crops. Mormon crickets/grasshoppers and the sea gulls that allegedly saved the crop.

"Grasshoppers and Mormon Crickets can be devastating to Utah’s most profitable crops"

(Report Comment)

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