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U.S. forecasters to predict slow hurricane season

Thursday, May 22, 2014 | 7:10 a.m. CDT; updated 12:17 p.m. CDT, Thursday, May 22, 2014

NEW YORK — Federal forecasters are expected to predict a slower than usual hurricane season this year.

The El Nino, which warms part of the Pacific every few years and changes rain and temperature patterns around the world, will likely reduce the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in New York City.

Cooler temperatures on the surface of the Atlantic Ocean compared with recent years will also lower the probability of hurricane formation.

Colorado State University researchers have forecast nine named storms in 2014, with just three expected to become hurricanes and one major storm with winds over 110 mph.

Forecasters got it wrong last year when they predicted an unusually busy hurricane season. There were just 13 named storms and two Category 1 hurricanes, Umberto and Ingrid. There were no major hurricanes.

Officials plan to roll out high-resolution maps that will show people where to expect storm surge. The maps were promised last year and are being implemented for the 2014 season.

Storm surge was devastating to the New York area when Superstorm Sandy slammed the East Coast in 2012, killing 147 people and causing $50 billion in damage. Sandy lost hurricane status when it made landfall in New Jersey.

New York City officials also will announce a new hurricane preparedness initiative.

The Atlantic hurricane season goes through cycles of high and low activity about every 25 to 40 years based on large scale climatic patterns in the atmosphere. Since 1995, an average season has 15 named tropical storms, eight hurricanes and about four major storms. The last time a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S. was when Wilma came ashore in 2005, an eight-year stretch that is currently the longest on record.

During the six-month season, forecasters name tropical storms when top winds reach 39 mph; hurricanes have maximum winds of at least 74 mph.


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