War in Iraq

John McCain

Barack Obama

*Translation

McCain does not support withdrawing troops until the United States helps the government of Iraq become capable of governing itself and al Qaida is defeated. He also would continue the counterinsurgency strategy. In late 2008, Iraq will vote on provincial governments, and in 2009 Iraq will vote on a national government. McCain would have the United Nations play a greater role in the process, and American troops would help with security to allow voting to take place. Using Iraq's budget surplus to employ people in infrastructure projects and services would help fix the economy in Iraq. Neighboring countries should invest in fruits and oil exports in Iraq to help promote regional stability. This would begin growth and would, in turn, end the reliance on outside help. International pressure on Iran and Syria would help end violence.

Obama says he is committed to ending the war in Iraq. Withdrawing troops would be planned in conjunction with the Iraqi government, and all troops would be withdrawn within 16 months. Missions against terrorism would be conducted by a residual force. Obama would engage all levels of Iraqi society in order to "forge compromises on oil revenue sharing, the equitable provision of services, federalism, the status of disputed territories, new elections, aid to displaced Iraqis and the reform of Iraqi security forces." Obama would help secure Iraq's borders, provide financial support and isolate al-Qaida. He would provide $2 billion to expand services to the 5 million displaced Iraqi refugees. Also any security accord must be approved by Congress.

A new president will be unable to fully shape a policy for the War in Iraq until the fall of 2009. If the issues begin to steady between spring 2008 and late 2009, it would be irresponsible to withdraw without seeking some form of victory, but if issues don't steady it doesn't make sense to stay until 2013. Also, it takes between 60 and 90 days to withdraw troops.     Decisions regarding the war can't be separated from the rest of the region, which includes Iran. Most of the al-Qaida threats will be reduced to terror attacks and bombing. If the central Iraqi government reaches out to Sunnis, it will remove a key cause of civil war. If that doesn’t happen, it makes sense to withdraw. Also, an intra-Shiite power struggle — along with the role of Iran — both are important factors, and Iran may try to use this struggle to push the U.S. out of Iraq.     The results of future elections in Iraq needs to be peaceful to create the necessary form of representation. Otherwise, elections will become a source of violence. The pressure to withdraw could be reduced if there is major progress in another area such as Baghdad, but a civil war in this region could result in withdrawal. The Iraqi security forces have stated they won't be ready to take over before 2012. The Department of Defense has helped create unrealistic expectations, but if the size and role of the forces is reduced, it will put less pressure on the next president. Also, the number of casualties should help determine whether the United States should stay. By January 2009, the Iraq war and Afghanistan-Pakistan war will total more than $1 trillion. Aid will be cut to a minimum, and Iraq needs to take over development costs and the costs of forces by 2009. From the Center for Strategic and International Studies