Missouri prepares for bird flu

In the month since state and national health officials met in St. Louis to plan for a possible bird flu pandemic, the mood has changed from one of speculation to one of anticipation.

Highlighted by the U.N.’s March 8 warning that the bird flu will be in the U.S. in the next six months courtesy of migratory birds, the level of action has changed from discussions of “what if” to preparations for “when.”

The state summit Feb. 23 — at which Gov. Matt Blunt signed a planning resolution with U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt outlining Missouri assistance and responsibility in the event of an influenza outbreak — began a series of state governmental measures to prevent and prepare for the H5N1 virus that has spread through 29 new countries in Europe, Asia and Africa in the past seven weeks alone, according to the World Health Organization.

The virus has now infected 186 people and killed 105, the WHO reported.

This spread has been accompanied by several experts warning of a worst-case scenario — an easily communicable pandemic coupled with a lack of preparation — that includes as many as 50 million human deaths and billions of dollars of damage to state and national economies.

Such images have left many Missourians, residents and officials alike, wondering how to interpret the threat.

“The chances of the avian influenza showing up in Missouri depends on which expert you talk to,” said Dave Graber, a waterfowl biologist with the Missouri Department of Conservation. “Six months ago I would’ve said it was unlikely. But with how rapidly it’s spreading in Europe, it makes me think we really need to be prepared.”

The virus, at this point, has only been acquired by humans via contact with infected poultry. A mutation to the virus that would allow human-to-human transmission is the No. 1 fear as the precursor to a pandemic.

For Missourians, the risk of exposure to the bird flu is primarily from two scenarios, according to Graber.

“There is a chance of migrating birds co-mingling with Alaskan birds,” he said. “Those would be the highest priority for monitoring efforts. There is also as great or greater a chance that, if it shows up, it would be through illegal poultry trade or black market for wild birds.”

Graber said Missouri’s position in the Mississippi flyway does not put it at a great threat of the virus coming from primary species — those that migrate from Asia, Russia and Europe through Alaska and Canada. But secondary species that breed in Alaska alongside primary species and then migrate through the flyway would pose a viable means of transporting the virus to Missouri.

“That’s why early detection is critical,” Graber said.

The Missouri Department of Conservation started testing samples of hunter-harvested birds in southeast Missouri last fall because of the potential for interaction between wild birds and domestic poultry in the many poultry houses located there. The results of the samples are still waiting, Graber said, because there are few labs with testing abilities and Alaskan samples are receiving the highest priority.

Shane Brookshire, a state veterinarian with the Missouri Department of Agriculture, said the agriculture industry has been dealing with strains of avian influenza for many years and works regularly with the U.S. departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services.

Missouri has enacted an Avian and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Committee, a joint effort with federal agencies, that meets every two weeks at the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, said Graber.

Furthermore, Missouri has been allocated $1.8 million from the federal government to examine and improve pandemic readiness plans. Missouri’s pandemic influenza plan, designed by the Department of Health and Senior Services, uses a phased approach for levels of preparedness and action among local, state and federal agencies.

The plan assumes an initial response to an outbreak that, without intervention, is projected to leave 1.8 million Missourians ill; 900,000 seeking outpatient care, 198,000 needing hospitalization and 38,610 dead.