Key issue of Iraq war abounds in debates

JEFFERSON CITY — Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq and Iraq.

Missouri’s Senate candidates clashed in five debates over the past five weeks, and the war in Iraq was the only topic raised in all five. In fact, there wasn’t really even a close second.

The implication is that the war may be the top issue for voters as they choose Nov. 7 between Republican Sen. Jim Talent and his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill.

If that’s the case, voters will have two distinct options.

McCaskill believes the war in Iraq is “a mess” and “a failed policy” because President Bush’s “steadfastness has turned into stubbornness.” She wants Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to be fired and U.S. troops to be redeployed from Iraq in about two years.

Talent has defended the president’s approach in Iraq and rejected any timetable for removing troops as a recipe for chaos. He cites the toppling of Saddam Hussein and the capture of various terrorists as victories. “What we’ve got to do to complete the mission is continue sizing and seasoning the Iraqi forces” until they can secure the nation on their own, Talent said.

Put more generally, McCaskill is calling for change and Talent is trying to stay the course, said political scientist Dave Robertson, of the University of Missouri-St. Louis, who watched each of the debates except last Wednesday’s finale in Kansas City.

The focus on Iraq — or, more broadly, on national security — typically has favored Republicans. But as the Iraq death toll keeps rising, the public’s patience apparently is waning.

The national security advantage Republicans enjoyed in 2002 and 2004 now is gone.

In Missouri, the debates’ significance may not only be their emphasis on Iraq, but also their absence of any attention to the social issues that have worked so strongly in the Republicans’ favor in recent elections.

“I think the agenda this year works against the Republicans,” he said, “because it does not include some of those issues that have been so critical for their base voters in the past. Instead, the war in Iraq clearly is an issue on which Republicans are on the defensive.”

But it would be stretch to suggest McCaskill has the election locked up. Talent still has several factors working in his favor.

First, Talent enjoys a fundraising advantage over McCaskill, which may allow him to run more ads than she does in the final two weeks. How much of an advantage that is remains to be seen, since both candidates and their parties already have saturated the airwaves.

Perhaps more importantly for Talent, Missouri Republicans have shown an operational advantage over Democrats in getting their base of supporters to the polls in recent elections. Democrats are hoping to change that this year, or at least chip away it.

The debates also revealed a new tactic for Talent, although it is unclear whether it will work or backfire. After spending the first three debates basing his case for re-election on his successful passage of bills (fighting methamphetamine and establishing a national ethanol standard, among them), Talent in the final two debates raised new attacks on McCaskill’s family.

While referencing the numerous business arrangements of McCaskill’s husband, millionaire developer Joseph Shepard, Talent tried to imply they might have avoided paying some taxes. It’s a claim McCaskill sharply denied and denounced as a “smear.”

Through his criticism, Talent essentially is trying to make the race a choice between two individuals — holding himself out as a better alternative. McCaskill, by contrast, is trying to make the race about a third individual — President Bush — while holding herself out as the alternative for those unsatisfied with things in Washington.