Below-average temperatures to last a bit longer

Swimsuits and flip-flops showing up at stores offer the promise that time is running short for winter’s chill. Just don’t be in a rush.

The cold snap that’s delivered below-average temperatures the past two weeks is expected to keep on giving — ­­­at least for a while.

“Winter will persist through the better part of February,” said Mike Halpert, a meteor­olo­gist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The latest temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center has a bull’s-eye on Missouri for below-normal temperatures from Feb. 13 to Feb. 17.

With the exception of Tuesday’s warm weather that gave a hint of spring, temperatures the past week have ranged from 20 to 25 degrees below normal in Columbia. The forecast high for today was 25 compared to an average high of 41.

Jim Kramper, the warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in St. Louis, said the colder temperatures might continue in Missouri through Feb. 20.

Ironically, the long-term outlook for February, March and April gives Missouri the best chance of above-normal temperatures.

“Right now, it looks like March and April are going to have to do most of the work,” Kramper said.

A west-to-east pattern of the jet stream that contributed to milder temperatures earlier this winter has shifted to a more north-south pattern, bringing harsh winter temperatures.

The west-to-east pattern seen earlier this winter was consistent with milder winter weather that’s often associated with El Nino, Halpert said.

El Nino, a warm current of water near the coast of Peru and Ecuador that causes the jet stream to shift, was much weaker than normal this year, causing unusual weather conditions, Kramper said, adding that Missouri does not usually have below-normal temperature readings with El Nino.

The cold temperatures aren’t unheard-of for this time of year, though.

“It’s not something we haven’t seen before,” Kramper said. “It has just been scarce over the past few years.”

With low temperatures intact, a more active weather pattern is expected to bring a chance of snow this weekend and again Monday night into Tuesday.