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Columbia Missourian

MU doesn't care about time of possession

By Andrew Astleford
October 8, 2008 | 8:40 p.m. CDT

COLUMBIA - Here's an example of how Missouri's offense kicks mud in the face of the time-of-possession statistic.

It's third-and-5 from the Tigers' 42 in the opening minute of the victory over Nebraska on Saturday. Four wide receivers are split to the sidelines, two on each side. Quarterback Chase Daniel drops back in the shotgun formation with a pair of defensive linemen screaming toward him like scud missiles across the desert sky. Then, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin flashes open near the first-down marker. Daniel cocks his right elbow and fires a pass to Maclin's left shoulder and catches him sprinting toward midfield. At the Nebraska 47, Maclin jukes right then cuts left, burning cornerback Anthony West like a yule log doused with premium unleaded.

Moments later, Maclin scores. MU leads 7-0.

Fifty-nine seconds into the game.

"We're the second-leading scoring offense in the nation," Daniel said. "I think time of possession is the least overlooked stat in America. I'm glad we're (ranked) 118th (in time of possession). That doesn't mean anything for us."

It doesn't, and MU is doing just fine despite it. The Tigers average 26 minutes, 7 seconds of possession per game. In the meantime, MU's upcoming foe, Oklahoma State, averages 32 minutes, 47 seconds — 10th most in the nation. Yet the Tigers average 53.4 points per game, and they have had 17 touchdown drives that have lasted less than two minutes this season. Given their success, MU offensive players scoff at the time-of-possession statistic and look to continue their hurried scoring barrage.

Once, the statistic was a credible method to predict a team's efficiency. During an era when triple-option power-rushing schemes dominated college football, the longer a team controlled possession, the more likely they were to grind a defense's will and win.

However, when compared to others in the top five, MU remains a statistical oddity. No other team holds possession for less than 30 minutes per game. The closest is LSU, which ranks 56th with an average of 30 minutes, 26 seconds. Oklahoma (30:54) ranks 46th, Texas (31:57) is 24th and Alabama (33:07) eighth.

"You can go on forever whether time of possession is a factor in who wins," said Bob Davie, Notre Dame coach from 1997-2001 and a current ABC/ESPN analyst who will call the Oklahoma State-Missouri game. "But the bottom line is if you score points when you have the ball, time of possession doesn't matter. But if you don't score points, or even worse you turn the ball over, then time of possession is a major factor. It doesn't matter how long you have it. It's what you do with it.

"When you look at Missouri, it's a wide-open attack, but they play so under control. That's the biggest thing I look at - just how calm and under control they are."

The Tigers' control has allowed them to produce points at a lightning strike pace. MU has committed five turnovers, two behind Louisiana-Monroe, the country's least-turnover prone team. Three of the Tigers' turnovers came against Buffalo, a team they beat by 21 points. Daniel has thrown one interception and 15 touchdowns.

In Saturday's victory over Nebraska, it was more of the same. The Cornhuskers controlled possession for almost 34 minutes, nearly eight more than the Tigers. In the victory over Buffalo, MU held the ball for 26 minutes, 21 seconds — its longest time this season.

"We want to score every play, if possible. Our offense is designed to score fast," Maclin said. "That's the tempo we play with.

"It has never been a concern of ours. If you're scoring points, it doesn't matter if you're holding the ball for all the game or 10 minutes. It doesn't matter."

Said wide receiver Jared Perry: "I was looking at that against Nebraska, and I was like, ‘Dang, they had the ball a lot longer than us.' We didn't have it that much, if you look at the plays. I don't know, we just go out there and play."

They do, but Davie heeds a warning. He says MU might be enjoying offensive success, but come the heart of Big 12 Conference season, more could be necessary. Time of possession's relevance is relative, and he said the statistic could matter in a close game.

"There will be a game when maybe late in the game, when you're not scoring with the frequency you had been scoring, then time of possession will matter," Davie said. "There's a point in the fourth quarter, if you're ahead by less than a one-score margin, time of possession is going to matter a little bit and the defense will matter.

"It's all important. It's just a matter of when it's important."