Analysis: Money flows to four Missouri congressional races

JEFFERSON CITY — If early money is an indication, nearly half of Missouri's U.S. House seats could have competitive races next year — a fairly high ratio for a state that hasn't booted an incumbent congressman in more than a decade.

Campaign finance reports released last week show several aspiring politicians are raising formidable amounts of money well before the 2010 elections, thus enhancing their prospects as credible candidates.

Missouri has nine congressional districts. There are several to watch:

• 3rd District in the St. Louis area, where Republican challenger Ed Martin raised more money in his first quarter as a candidate than Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan did in the same span from July through September.

• 4th District in western Missouri, where two Republican challengers — state Sen. Bill Stouffer and former Rep. Vicky Hartzler — each reported about $200,000 for their quest to challenge longtime Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton.

• 7th District in southwest Missouri, where at least four candidates are raising money in a Republican primary to succeed Rep. Roy Blunt, a Republican who is running for the U.S. Senate.

• 8th District in southeast Missouri, where Democrat Tommy Sowers raised more money than Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson during the past quarter and also reported slightly more money in the bank.

While early fundraising success does not guarantee victory, it virtually is a prerequisite for a competitive campaign in an era where costly TV ads, mailed pamphlets and phone banks reach more potential voters than politicians' handshakes.

"You have to be able to ante up to mount a competitive campaign for a U.S. House seat," said Dave Robertson, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. "To do that, you've got to raise money early, and you've got to continue to raise money going up to Election Day."

Republicans scrambling for votes in southwest Missouri probably can focus on the August primary without worrying about draining their finances for the November general election because the congressional district routinely is won by Republicans.

In that race, political newcomer Billy Long has amassed more money than the combined totals of his competitors, which include more established politicians such as state Sens. Gary Nodler, R-Joplin, and Jack Goodman, R-Mt. Vernon, and Darrell Moore, Greene County Prosecutor. Long also has decent name recognition because of his work as an auctioneer, real estate broker and former radio host. The candidates in the 7th District already have raised about $900,000.

Although the odds normally would be against them, Republicans also are pouring money into challenges against incumbents Skelton and Carnahan.

Martin, a former chief of staff for Republican Gov. Matt Blunt, raised $201,535 compared to Carnahan's $163,966 last quarter, though Carnahan still has about one-third more money in the bank than Martin.

Despite the early fundraising of Stouffer and Hartzler, Skelton is starting with three times as much money in his campaign account.

Skelton has proved a durable politician while representing a conservative district for the past 32 years. He recently hired Ken Morley, who managed Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon's overwhelming victory last fall.

Carnahan has a rich political heritage, the son of a governor and senator and brother of Missouri's secretary of state, and represents a Democratic-leaning district.

But the party out of power in Washington historically has picked up seats in non-presidential election years. Republicans are positioning themselves to take advantage if there is a voter backlash against President Barack Obama and the Democratic-led Congress.

The GOP is focusing on Carnahan and Skelton, because "those are the kind of districts that Republicans will need to pick up if they want to move close to — or take — a majority in the House of Representatives," Robertson said.

Robertson describes the Democratic challenge to Emerson as a wild card. An Emerson — now Jo Ann, and before that her late husband Bill — has occupied the southeast Missouri congressional seat since 1980. And Emerson has been helped by her willingness to vote independently of her party, Robertson said.

Sowers, a former Army Special Forces officer making his first political run, thrust himself into contention by raising $204,510 last quarter compared to Emerson's $120,360. Sowers' campaign boasted that was more than the total raised by the last decade's worth of challengers to Emerson. He reported $189,347 of that cash still on hand, compared to $186,394 for Emerson.

But recent Missouri history shows that early fundraising success can fizzle come Election Day.

In October 2007, former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes, had raised a respectable $656,469 for her Democratic challenge of Republican Rep. Sam Graves in northwest Missouri's 6th Congressional District. But the marquee match up never materialized. Graves won the November 2008 election with 59 percent of the vote compared to her 37 percent.

Although Democrat Claire McCaskill unseated Republican Sen. Jim Talent in 2006, no Missouri challenger has defeated an incumbent U.S. House member since 1996, when Republican Kenny Hulshof beat Democratic Rep. Harold Volkmer.