The New York Times put it starkly. A recent poll with Siena College shows Democrats “faring far worse than they have in the past with Hispanic voters.” Only 56% say they’ll back Democratic candidates this fall, with Republicans getting 32%. Just two years ago, President Biden received 63% of the Latino vote, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton polled 71%.

While Democrats are surging among college-educated white women, many of them outraged by the Supreme Court’s decision to roll back abortion rights, another dynamic — almost a counter-reaction — is at work. As the Democrats’ center of gravity moves from the factory floor to the faculty lounge, as party strategist Paul Begala puts it, they are in danger of driving Latino voters away.


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